Even in the most optimistic scenario, temperatures would rise between 3 and 4 degrees in 2050, regarding pre-industrial levels, as suggested by a new study that involves mathematical models carried out by a team of researchers from the University of Valladolid.
The study has analyzed the so-called INDCs, the proposals submitted by 188 countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and the actions that each state will take to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement to not increase the temperature more than 2 ºC.
Exponential increase in temperature
The rise in temperatures does not follow a linear evolution, but exponentially. For the scientific community, the 2 ºC is a “safe barrier”, since exceeding this temperature “climate change could enter a phase of no return”, explains the researcher at the University of Valladolid (UVa) Jaime Nieto:
The increase in temperatures does not follow a linear evolution, but exponentially, and from a certain moment some mechanisms would be activated that would cause the increase in temperatures to skyrocket.
China, the main emitter of greenhouse gases today and India, which is in fifth place, would be responsible for almost 20% of these emissions. The study developed by the UVa team has been published recently in the journal Ecological Economics and is part of the doctoral thesis of Jaime Nieto:
In the Paris Agreement and in the INDCs, which in general are very little transparent, the impacts of economic growth and the mechanisms of transferring 'dirty' production to developing countries through international trade are not being taken into account . We have calculated the real emissions that each country will have in 2030, which is the year that is set as a horizon in this agreement, and each one would emit on average 37.8% more than in the 2005-2015 period.